199 [Back to an autopilot market environment? Sep 28, 2020]

  • LAC, what a rebound from the undercut of the 50day, built another hl and boom straight up. This is why you need loose stops if you wanna hold for longer term, you kinda need wider stops, bc look at this pullback, this was like 40% in 4/5days, and if you panicked out of it bc it went lower well, you panicked out and need looser stops. Gonna use recent retracement low as my stop now. If we get a good setup I’d love to double my position, I only have 20kshares, it was too thin but now it’s much more liquid.
  • TSLA shorted some orls, just bc seeing QQQs gapping up into this resistance area [declining 20day]. Stopped out straight away, quick way of losing 43k. Took out lods again, got back in [10kshares]. May add more to it if it fails at vwap. Perfect rejection off vwap twice, this is why I use vwap, idk why it works but it works.
  • GNRC, yeah looks good, it’s a slow name 3.4%ADR but the setup looks pretty good, a lower entry would have been better though, now it’s kinda gone.
  • DKNG, this was one of the first to breakout after the markets had the first leg down, so I bought it, was just like LVGO on Friday, not that great setup but was kinda setting up and just showed extreme strength.
  • I can lose like a couple hundred k in the markets and idgaf lose or make, but in real life if something costs like a dollar too much I bail, I go somewhere else, it’s so stupid, bc then the money feels real, if I’m sitting here trading it’s like a video game, it doesn’t feel real, it’s just some numbers, that’s the crazy part. Different domains. I lost 45k in ten seconds on TSLA like 25mins ago, and now I’m complaining about paying 45 bucks for three newspapers, just ridiculous.
  • SPCE, it had an upgrade, is coming out of a range but not really my type of setup, upgrades don’t usually have much follow through longer term, but yeah could go. I prefer stocks that already have established momo, this one has been going sideways for like 9 months.
  • How do you know a stock is extended? Well there’s different types, you have the types that kinda grind up, never really go parabolic but they still have good shorts once they get into the backside, like OSTK. Then you have the types like TSLA that grind grind grind then they kinda go parabolic, that’s what happened back in Jan2020 and also in Jul2020 and Aug2020. And then you have the types that go super parabolic, like JMIA, when they go up several hundred percent in a few weeks or even a few days, and once they’re up like 2/3/4days in a row, that’s when you start looking for weakness, like orls, lhs, rangebreaks to the downside. ABUS is a perfect example, this thing went up almost 400% in just a few days. Then you have the ones that fade on the first day, but I never trade these, it’s too hard man, you don’t know if they’re gonna continue higher or that was it, so I usually ignore them. IGC another one, this one went up almost 500% in two days and then it faded, so usually it’s day 2/3 you’re looking for, I never look at day1, but you can get some good shorts on day1 too, I’m just not very good at shorting day1. JRJC another one, when they gap up big and maybe pop a little bit and then just fade off. There’s so many, SNOA, FAT, SCKT, if you just study, you don’t need to have any specific rules, you kinda need to make your own rules, you just need to study them, it’s just the same patterns over and over again.
  • GOGO, yeah I like this one, has very good momo, it’s building hls off the 20day and getting tighter, this one could be good.
  • You can use the 1,5,60min chart, it’s all about having a range so you can have a stop. If you are watching a setup and coming into the open it triggers immediately, you can buy it on the first 1min candle, or first 5min, or you can buy it late day, it’s about trying to catch it as early as possible, just as it’s starting to break out of a range. But you don’t want to be too early, you want to buy a breakout, you don’t want to anticipate, like lets say I buy OSTK here, there’s no guarantee it will go up, this could be a bear flag, so always wait for confirmation, I’m not a believer in anticipating breakouts, unless in very rare special scenarios, but it takes years to be able to identify those scenarios imo.
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