173 [Time for patience! -Swing Trading School first hour or so. Aug 12, 2020]

  • TSLA I had 3kshares yesterday at the close, covered 2k on the split news. Obv gapping up on stock split news, but into the declining 65ema, if it starts getting rejected and taking out orls stuff like that, I’m gonna add back those 2kshares I covered, and maybe even more, if it sells off on this news. It’s gapping right into the lower end of this base, this mid/high 1400 area, it hit as high as 1490 premarket, unfortunately I covered near the highs but this thing could have been 1550 premarket you never know, that’s why you gotta just obey your stops no matter what. Shorted 2600shares TSLA orls, anticipating a sell the news here, very tight stop. Stopped out of half, covered the adds, using AH highs as stop on rest, rn it’s strong bc market also very strong, if it closes strong I’ll cover the last 1kshares. So far really strong, I’ll just cover my remaining shares. It’s right in the middle of this range, if it starts fading here and taking out downside ranges I’ll get back short, but if it reclaims this high 1400 area and starts building hls, gets above this 20day, we may have a setup on the long side coming. Rn I don’t have enough information to know if it’s gonna go higher or lower, it’s just inside of a range.
  • The market is in a choppy period, we’re hanging out near the highs but I don’t see many good setups, I think we need a couple weeks for things to start setting up again. We may finally start getting some pullback, I went short TQQQ 10kshares yesterday in case we get a deeper pullback, maybe to low 100s or something. TQQQ also very strong, I shorted when it broke down below this range, but I’ll just cover it, 45k loss.
  • OSTK, I covered some in weakness yesterday near the open, then it had a big big bounce, bounced 20%, then is started building lhs, put in a lh on the 60min, then intraday started building lhs, had a rangebreak here in the low 97s, that’s where I added another 8kshares, those I covered late day and premarket. I’m still short 29kshares, I think this thing goes back to 70 minimum, prob 60 over the next few weeks. No support until 20day, could be an add spot if it takes out lods, hopefully if it loses lods late in the day and has a big $5/7 fade or something. Added small [6kshares] lods, just incase it pulls an NVAX. This is another 700/800k trade. This is why I track these big momo movers, another one up 3400%, once they start getting really parabolic, really really extended, then you start looking for weakness, lhs, rangebreaks to the downside, etc etc.
  • NVAX, I shorted yesterday, I was trading from my car. I shorted orls and added late day when it got rejected off the declining 10ema, added more in like 163s, so I’m short 11800shares. Added a little orls [3500shares], this thing has enormous downside, the 50day is 30% lower. This thing was up 4200%, since Jan2020, the 50day pullback would just be healthy price action. NVAX straight down, covering tiny bit. Holy sh*t, this was a homerun, if this goes to 100 potentially 1M trade. A big homerun trade now and there, those are the ones you’re gonna make big money. I’ll cover a bit more, I’ll keep 4500shares [1/3].
  • W, it doesn’t matter how much you hate the stock or the company, if there’s a good setup, if there’s a 5* setup on it, you have to buy it. I bought it this day and I uploaded it and the guy said ‘I see you’re long W you should stop trading rn’, and the stock goes up 42% in the next 9 sessions, this is literally the strongest stock in the market rn, except for these random microcap pumps, but if you look at the real stocks mid/large caps, this is the strongest stock out there, it literally hit aths yesterday, bounced off the rising 10day perfectly, went straight up and hit aths. The point is; it doesn’t matter what your opinion is, your opinion is sh*t, I don’t care who you are, that’s why I trade setups, I’ve been wrong on so many things and yet I still make money on them bc I trade the setups.
  • GSX covered some, still have about half of shares, it’s bouncing off the 20day that’s actually very bullish price action.
  • Breakout trading works when the market is strong, and when the 10/20day start sloping lower and the 10day is below the 20day, you don’t trade breakouts, even if you see a good setup you shouldn’t trade it. Then this is where the big money is made, you wait out the bad times and this is where you 2/3x your account. Then when the 10/20day start sloping lower that’s when you sit and wait, and let the amateurs trade, churn their accounts, blow up, and when the times get good again that’s when you 2/3/4x your accounts. Very simple but not easy. Staying out of the markets is the hardest thing to do.
  • Scans, 1,3,6months.
  • If you wanna make aggressive returns, triple digit returns, year in year out, you gotta be in the fast moving stocks. Let the amateurs trade the slow moving stocks, let the billionaires trade the slow moving stocks.
  • AMZN is trading like a midcap stock, this is a htf, this is a 4* setup, ADR is only 3.1%, but if it can go sideways a few more days, put in even more narrow days, it’s getting really tight here, looks like it wants to go to 4000, this is a htf developing on AMZN, pretty amazing.
  • WKHS stalking for a short, I think it’s gonna do what NKLA did a couple of months ago, made a big move, went sideways for a month or so, then it lost the rising 20day and went down 35% in three sessions. I think WKHS is looking similar, made a big move, now it’s been going sideways for over a month and now it’s kinda below the 20day, the 10/20day have turned lower, if this thing starts breaking down it could easily go down 20/30% in a few days. Hopefully not today, I’ve like to see it breakdown tomos or Friday.
  • Yeah I do trade bearflags sometimes, like when momo stocks start breaking down, but you don’t really get that many good bearflags, like 5* bearflags are pretty rare, compared to the bullflags.
  • The simple breakout method I’m trying to teach you, every single one of you in chat, rn, if you really put in the work and understand the nuances of the setup, understand when it works, when it doesn’t work, when you should be aggressive, when you should be defensive, when you shouldn’t be trading at all. It takes years to get really good at it, but once you get good at it, you’re guaranteed you’re gonna make millions, tens of millions guaranteed, most of you won’t bc most of you won’t get it, most of you won’t put in the work, and many of you will give up when the market gets tough, most of you won’t be able to sit there and do nothing for weeks and sometimes for months on end when the markets are not good for breakouts, most of you will be looking for the next shiny thing. Everyday there are stocks moving, going up or down and sitting there and doing very little or nothing for weeks and months on end, it’s the hardest thing to do, it really is, I struggle with it all the time.
  • The longer time frames you have on your trades, the more you need to focus on fundamentals, not just momo. And if you’re gonna hold a stock for many months and even quarters, there needs to be a reason for the stock to go up, rather than just random momo, shorter term swingtrading you can just use momo you don’t need any fundamentals. But to catch a mover like this that goes up several hundred percent in a short amount of time, you need fuel, the stock needs to have a reason to go up, and the fuel many times is earnings, big earnings and rev growth, and obv big volume. Some of my biggest winners, FSLY, LVGO, these stocks went up a few hundred percent after my entry and they had a lot of fuel, rocket fuel, and it’s called earnings and rev growth. A lot of these stocks that made big moves, FVRR, big rev growth, now it’s getting earnings too, GSX too, very big earnings and rev growth, the reason the stock was up almost 1000% in less than a year is bc of this, look at the rev growth, these are the stocks that make big moves. So I try to focus on the stocks that have big eps and rev growth, primarily the rev growth, they don’t need to have earnings , but if they have earnings that’s a good thing.
  • OSTK, 110% rev growth last Q, the market sniffed it out, that’s why the stock went up 2000% before the earnings report, those are the tricky ones, when the stock has a big big run up before good numbers, it’s much easier when you have a stock that reports good numbers and then goes up a lot.
  • That’s something, if you study the big movers over the past 10/20years, you’ll see that most of the big movers, not all of them, but most of them had big earnings and big rev growth.
  • VEEV just can’t get below the 20day, every time it tries it just immediately reclaims, maybe next week, let the 50day catch up a little bit, we’re gonna get a lot of setups.
  • So many things setting up, can’t be degenerates have to wait for good setups.
  • FUV, here was a 5* setup, if you bought it in the 6.20s/6.30s.
  • TIGR looks pretty decent, like a 4* setup.
  • As a short term trader, day or swing, there really is no excuse not to make less than 100% a year, no matter what year.
  • PINS, look how nicely, undercut the 10day now it’s reclaiming, on the 60min it hit the rising 65ema and right back into range, this is very bullish action on PINS. I think next week we might have a really nice buying opp on it, may want to go to 50 or something.
  • MAXR, had a decent setup here, but now it’s just a random stock that went up, after it broke out of a nice setup. You need to be on these things here, not here (now).
  • TUP, this one actually looks pretty decent, maybe in a couple of days, this thing is a very clean mover, this is exactly what we’re looking for, a clean move, then wait for sideways and tightness, this is building on the tightness, maybe later this week or next week, could be a good one but it’s too early.
  • APPS, no. We’re looking for a breakout, it needs to be on the 10/20/50day, this is way above all of these, it’s 20% above the 10day, 33% above the 20day. It’s up in the stratosphere rn. Here is a good setup, look how tight it is, right on the 10/20day.


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